Thanks - totally agree. The people I know who use this response, rather than look at the raw data, are like robots repeating something that MSM trained them to say. If you repeat something often enough, it sticks - no critical thinking. No one seems to remember that the world was told that no one would go to the hospital or die of COVID if they had the vaccine.
And the differences become even more stark if you look only at the unvaxxd vs boosted. Great job again Sheldon, only this time you've finally motivated me to actually start doing some analysis myself.
It makes no difference if the vaccines are miracles or death sentences, informed consent was made impossible and sometimes illegal through censorship. Without informed consent, each of these experimental injections is a crime scene.
I think you failed to make your point, in my opinion. You never do the one thing necessary: explain why the "crayola drawing" as you put it, is wrong. It isn't wrong, I just doesn't give the whole context - but your other numbers do. Your mistake was not explicitly connecting the two.
BUT
It can be salvaged by two sentences: "If the number of boosted people make up 50% of the population, you would expect the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to be at most 50% of the counts in boosted individuals (and if the media is to be believed, much less than that). But since boosted people account for more than 50% of the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, it shows that being boosted is at best not effective, and at worst actually related to worse outcomes."
And before you attack the messenger, for what it's worth, I have a degree in computer science and mathematics, as well as 15 years working in healthcare statistics explaining exactly this kind of thing to people.
Not that credentials matter that much, I will stipulate. I'm just saying it could have been concluded a bit better, from experience. You need to tie a nice little bow around your conclusion for people to "get it".
Hmmm... this is really interesting ... so you are saying I should keep getting boosters because if I get enough of them I'll be fully protected from serious illness.
I understand the base rate fallacy, but I think that you are overlooking the confounding variable of age. I think 85-year-olds are more likely to be boosted than 5-year-olds, and 85-year-olds are more likely to die of Covid-19 than 5-year-olds, so I don't think it can be concluded that boosters are causing increased Covid-19 death without looking at deaths per 100k by vaccination status in each age group. I think that the confounding variable of age was similarly overlooked for myocarditis when it was concluded that myocarditis is more likely from Covid-19 infection than from vaccine reaction; for older people this may have been true, but for young people it was more likely the vaccine. I hope that you will consider breaking down your death analysis by both age and vaccination status as golden pup has done for analysis of hospitalizations (https://twitter.com/Golden_Pup/status/1521280997207203840).
My God, I've been trying to explain this to a woman on fb and she still insists YOU dont understand base rate fallacy all the while pointing out that the majority of deaths r in the unvaxxed on the charts. I feel like icepicking my brain would feel better than trying to explain that counting all deaths before anyone was even vaxxed is an example of the very thing she is saying I'm doing ffs😵😵😵. I'd like to record the date govt claims certain jab rates. First a starting point, like when we reached 70%, then look at cases etc for a few weeks after. Then 80%, then 90ish or whatever the fuck the govt is claiming to have so show people that as jabs increased, nothing decreased. I have a computer and an average brain, but haven't made the time. I think the time has come and i do love excel.
Hi Sheldon, I’m dealing with a naysayer who claims the CDC shows unvaccinated are dying at 5x the rate of vaccinated. What’s the single best source to refute this? Thanks
I really like the visuals. Makes sense to me. The narrative I hear the most now is that the Covid vaccines were not meant to cure anything or prevent you from getting it but rather prevent serious illness or hospitalization. I’m like what??? This is often the narrative I get from folks who are generally healthy, have an active lifestyle and generally eat well. I don’t understand where they forgot to trust their own immunity vs falling for an experimental shot with who knows what the ingredients are or long term effects. Frustrating and sad!
really appreciate your statistical approach - i worked as a wildlife biologist around the planet for 45 years and have always been a skeptic of most science as being hugely biased in hypothesis setting and role of confirmation biases in the absolute control of funding - did years of analysis on woodland caribou and bottom line is the system has been rigged for a very long time to deliver a top down government message and people actually believe it. Just finishing a long essay on evolution and modern human behaviour to illustrate how just about everything we read and hear reflects a desire to deliver subliminal messages to the masses who absorb it like a blotter. For the small percentage of people who do not buy the agenda that represents about 20% of the population re:the covid scam it is discouraging but we have to appreciate this as a reality of humans. We would like to think that people are just a little more intelligent but is always has been about mind control and as I suggested in an earlier communication big business and government are totally dedicated to that path and there is essentially no way it can change until masses eventually come to the realization they must stand up for freedoms - a very long and arduous path that IMHO is at generation or two away until we flip the demographic to a mass of people that grow up outside of the current game. In the meantime we have the role to be the source of the information and hopefully begin a transition in which the followers have a different mindset.
Like as you know the fear is deep rooted and subliminally implanted in the masses that we are facing apocalyptic times regardless of what the data says because big business interests are ALL about controlling what people think. Revolutions and resets come until the new tier of power mongers once again find other paths to control people.
Just look at the historical dialogue on climate change and how big business and government find that fertile ground for tomorrow - they want people to live in fear and uncertainty and fuelled with MSM in their pockets it is so easy to accomplish.
If you break this down by age bracket then very different numbers appear and a completely different story unfolds.
More than 80% of COVID deaths are among people who are of age 70 or more, so it’s worth examining this group in isolation.
About 97% of those over 70 have had booster shots. If the vaccines are of no use, then we would expect 97% of COVID deaths in this age group to have had booster shots as well. Instead the number is about 70%, which means getting booster shots is massively effective at saving lives.
By looking at the entire population, most of which are in very little danger of COVID death by dint of their youth, the “97% with booster shots” gets diluted down to 50%. The value of the vaccine to the aged is missed.
Thanks - totally agree. The people I know who use this response, rather than look at the raw data, are like robots repeating something that MSM trained them to say. If you repeat something often enough, it sticks - no critical thinking. No one seems to remember that the world was told that no one would go to the hospital or die of COVID if they had the vaccine.
I'm still confused by "base rate". Isn't this resolved by just looking at per capita rates for each vaccination group?
And the differences become even more stark if you look only at the unvaxxd vs boosted. Great job again Sheldon, only this time you've finally motivated me to actually start doing some analysis myself.
It makes no difference if the vaccines are miracles or death sentences, informed consent was made impossible and sometimes illegal through censorship. Without informed consent, each of these experimental injections is a crime scene.
Your argument is so clear and easy to follow. Thank you for sharing!
Awesome once again Sheldon. They are completely grasping at this point. So tired of it.
I think you failed to make your point, in my opinion. You never do the one thing necessary: explain why the "crayola drawing" as you put it, is wrong. It isn't wrong, I just doesn't give the whole context - but your other numbers do. Your mistake was not explicitly connecting the two.
BUT
It can be salvaged by two sentences: "If the number of boosted people make up 50% of the population, you would expect the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to be at most 50% of the counts in boosted individuals (and if the media is to be believed, much less than that). But since boosted people account for more than 50% of the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, it shows that being boosted is at best not effective, and at worst actually related to worse outcomes."
And before you attack the messenger, for what it's worth, I have a degree in computer science and mathematics, as well as 15 years working in healthcare statistics explaining exactly this kind of thing to people.
Not that credentials matter that much, I will stipulate. I'm just saying it could have been concluded a bit better, from experience. You need to tie a nice little bow around your conclusion for people to "get it".
I like your line: "I'll take survival over participation trophies."
Well said!
Dear Sheldon & Yakk Squad,
Reality Is Not Relevant To These Psychopathic Satanists!
Truth Is Just A Word To Them!
Humanity Is At War With Evil In Upside Down World!
Look At How Our Satanic Prime Minister Lies Through His Teeth & Demonizes Us Calling Us Extremists!!
They Are Going All Out To Destroy Us & The Sooner We Understand That & Forget The Rules Of Civility The Better!
World War Three Against The Fourth Reich Is Under Way!
We Were Wise To Their Plandemic De-Pop Plan & Now They Have Pulled All The Stops!
Let me pretend to be a CovIDIOT...
Hmmm... this is really interesting ... so you are saying I should keep getting boosters because if I get enough of them I'll be fully protected from serious illness.
I understand the base rate fallacy, but I think that you are overlooking the confounding variable of age. I think 85-year-olds are more likely to be boosted than 5-year-olds, and 85-year-olds are more likely to die of Covid-19 than 5-year-olds, so I don't think it can be concluded that boosters are causing increased Covid-19 death without looking at deaths per 100k by vaccination status in each age group. I think that the confounding variable of age was similarly overlooked for myocarditis when it was concluded that myocarditis is more likely from Covid-19 infection than from vaccine reaction; for older people this may have been true, but for young people it was more likely the vaccine. I hope that you will consider breaking down your death analysis by both age and vaccination status as golden pup has done for analysis of hospitalizations (https://twitter.com/Golden_Pup/status/1521280997207203840).
My God, I've been trying to explain this to a woman on fb and she still insists YOU dont understand base rate fallacy all the while pointing out that the majority of deaths r in the unvaxxed on the charts. I feel like icepicking my brain would feel better than trying to explain that counting all deaths before anyone was even vaxxed is an example of the very thing she is saying I'm doing ffs😵😵😵. I'd like to record the date govt claims certain jab rates. First a starting point, like when we reached 70%, then look at cases etc for a few weeks after. Then 80%, then 90ish or whatever the fuck the govt is claiming to have so show people that as jabs increased, nothing decreased. I have a computer and an average brain, but haven't made the time. I think the time has come and i do love excel.
Hi Sheldon, I’m dealing with a naysayer who claims the CDC shows unvaccinated are dying at 5x the rate of vaccinated. What’s the single best source to refute this? Thanks
I really like the visuals. Makes sense to me. The narrative I hear the most now is that the Covid vaccines were not meant to cure anything or prevent you from getting it but rather prevent serious illness or hospitalization. I’m like what??? This is often the narrative I get from folks who are generally healthy, have an active lifestyle and generally eat well. I don’t understand where they forgot to trust their own immunity vs falling for an experimental shot with who knows what the ingredients are or long term effects. Frustrating and sad!
really appreciate your statistical approach - i worked as a wildlife biologist around the planet for 45 years and have always been a skeptic of most science as being hugely biased in hypothesis setting and role of confirmation biases in the absolute control of funding - did years of analysis on woodland caribou and bottom line is the system has been rigged for a very long time to deliver a top down government message and people actually believe it. Just finishing a long essay on evolution and modern human behaviour to illustrate how just about everything we read and hear reflects a desire to deliver subliminal messages to the masses who absorb it like a blotter. For the small percentage of people who do not buy the agenda that represents about 20% of the population re:the covid scam it is discouraging but we have to appreciate this as a reality of humans. We would like to think that people are just a little more intelligent but is always has been about mind control and as I suggested in an earlier communication big business and government are totally dedicated to that path and there is essentially no way it can change until masses eventually come to the realization they must stand up for freedoms - a very long and arduous path that IMHO is at generation or two away until we flip the demographic to a mass of people that grow up outside of the current game. In the meantime we have the role to be the source of the information and hopefully begin a transition in which the followers have a different mindset.
Like as you know the fear is deep rooted and subliminally implanted in the masses that we are facing apocalyptic times regardless of what the data says because big business interests are ALL about controlling what people think. Revolutions and resets come until the new tier of power mongers once again find other paths to control people.
Just look at the historical dialogue on climate change and how big business and government find that fertile ground for tomorrow - they want people to live in fear and uncertainty and fuelled with MSM in their pockets it is so easy to accomplish.
As you can say and as I say STUPID
If you break this down by age bracket then very different numbers appear and a completely different story unfolds.
More than 80% of COVID deaths are among people who are of age 70 or more, so it’s worth examining this group in isolation.
About 97% of those over 70 have had booster shots. If the vaccines are of no use, then we would expect 97% of COVID deaths in this age group to have had booster shots as well. Instead the number is about 70%, which means getting booster shots is massively effective at saving lives.
By looking at the entire population, most of which are in very little danger of COVID death by dint of their youth, the “97% with booster shots” gets diluted down to 50%. The value of the vaccine to the aged is missed.