How Many Fully Vaxxed are Walking Around with Waning Immunity?
An article in the Israeli Times, last week, claims:
Over 1 million Israelis who haven’t had 3rd dose to lose Green Pass on Sunday
Sunday, October 3rd, 2021, these people will lose the freedoms afforded by a Vaccine Passport system based on not having a Booster shot.
This is a pretty big deal, Israel being the most vaccinated country on the planet, with doses in their High Risk age groups showing between 60-80% triple vaxxed:
Actually very impressive on Israel completing a 3rd dose by this large of a population after only starting their booster program just over 2 months ago.
Why the 3rd Dose?
After a resurgent COVID outbreak, they wanted to see if the vaccines were still working. The study concluded:
These results indicate a strong effect of waning immunity in all age groups after six months. Quantifying the effect of waning immunity on vaccine effectiveness is critical for policy makers worldwide facing the dilemma of administering booster vaccinations.
Seems pretty important with them, being ahead of the planet on percentage of their population vaccinated, providing a look into the future for all other countries taking the mRNA vaccines.
Waning immunity for a vaccine that doesn’t actually stop transmission of COVID but only lessens the severity of symptom from COVID made me wonder about the amounts of people who, aren’t just in jeopardy of losing their freedoms, but will also pose as great of a threat to the Fully Vaccinated - inside of 6 Months as well as will be in a lot more personal danger exposing themselves to the open public, as people who were never vaccinated - natural immunity is a whole other conversation.
That’s how the logic works, right?
But what do the numbers really look like?
How many people are walking around thinking they “are” safe from COVID and actually “aren’t”?
I drilled a little into the data and working with Israels numbers tried to figure out what this might look like.
6 Months ago, Israel had 4.89 million fully vaccinated people. Today, over 1 million of those are going to be walking around without full protection from the vaccines - about 20%.
In Canada, we have only just been casually throwing around the idea of “Booster Shots”, they are not a part of the vaccine passport systems, yet, and we are instead trying to get the ball rolling on vaccinating children between the ages of 5-11.
Fortunately, because of the abysmal job done by the Canadian Government in initially rolling out vaccines, the number of people with waning immunity couldn’t be higher than 730,958 people:
I don’t want to speculate on how many of these first 700+k have or haven’t had their booster shot - it’s not been mandated for the vaccination passport system in Canada, yet.
However, even assuming the same 80% triple dose rate of Israel after rolling out it’s 3rd dose mandate, during the busiest shopping season of the year - Christmas, seasonal gatherings and celebrating into the New Year that number could conceivably be over 2.5 Million Canadians:
Imagine the logic that goes behind mandating vaccination passports based on vaccines not being able to stop transmission of COVID but may in some circumstances lessen the severity of the virus, while completely ignoring the length of time that the vaccinations are effective for.
This is where we are.
I’m surprised we aren’t seeing more conversations around this.