Did the Lockdowns, Vaccines, Masks and Passports Save Any Lives Throughout 2021 in Alberta?
[Spoiler Alert - No they did not.]
While I was a little late to the substack game and on publishing content only starting in Mid-August, by September of 2020, I drilled out the excess mortality in the province of Alberta using Provincial and COVID data, you can find it →Did the Lockdowns and Mask Mandates Save Lives?
Today because of being reminded through conversation, I figured I should probably get an updated version of this out a little earlier…instead of waiting until September of 2022.
Using the available Raw Data from Overall Provincial Deaths and COVID deaths from the Provincial Dashboard, I took a look to see if there were any improvements brought on by all of the COVID Health Measures used throughout 2021 or if they simply did nothing.
I’m going to start off with what the deaths look like over the last few decades:
And right off the hop, you can see that there are MORE deaths in 2020 and 2021 where 2021 seen more mortality than did in 2020, and the net increase is 1007 or an additional 3.4% more than the year previous, average rate of increase over the last 3 decades is 2.42%, which includes 2020 and 2021 (2.1% without). There are some years below the trend-line but it is a fairly steady and regular incline with exception of the last 2 years.
Over the last year, we adopted the New Vaccines, continued on with the masking protocols along with various versions of Shelter in Place that included reduced capacity, recommendations of division between vaccinated and unvaccinated throughout holidays and a Mandated Vaccination Passport. If these measures were effective, even assuming that there was only one variant of COVID, that the rate of deaths in the Province should have declined. Everything we’ve done, should have had some impact and it didn’t.
Thing is, throughout 2021, we’ve had a total of 3 different variants with each successive variant being less lethal, with Omicron being the weakest of the 3.
If you wanted an idea of how the vaccinations and passport use were going in relation to the different COVID variants, it would look like this:
With the introduction of both the Booster Shot and the Vaccine Passports starting in September, passports indicated on the chart.
In all fairness, the first COVID death in the Province of Alberta wasn’t until March 19, 2020, giving 2021 an 3 additional months worth of COVID spread and deaths, where the majority of deaths happened in the last half of 2021.
What do the numbers actually look like?
Total COVID Mortality:
2020: 1531
2021: 1830
Difference: 299
Total COVID Deaths being: 3361
Hold on to that for a quick moment and remember that there was a Net Increase in Mortality for 2021 of 1007. Only about 30% of the additional mortality in 2021 over 2020…and if we deduct these deaths from the total, the Net Increase in Mortality for 2021 over 2020 is 2.42% - Higher than the pre-pandemic average over the last 3 decades (2.1%).
To get an idea of what Excess Mortality looks like - though may not be 100% accurate, I added in average mortality increase from the last 3 decades and then worked to deduct the COVID deaths from this difference. What we most likely would have seen without COVID is a graph that looks like this:
Using my somewhat Crude Methodology for Calculating, Excess Mortality, over and above a Provincial Average Increase in mortality would be:
2020: 875
2021: 932
Total: 1807
If we assume accuracy on the COVID Deaths and assume that all of these mortalities were FROM COVID (Total - 3361), the additional measures put in place to Save Lives From COVID, we seen an increase in Excess Mortality of 1807 or an additional 54% Excess Mortality for 2020 and 2021 in Alberta, which would be an equivalent of more than 1 more year of COVID deaths on the Province.
3 years of COVID death in 2 years, one of which was CAUSED by measure meant to Reduce Mortality from COVID, where the second year of COVID showed an increase of 30%.
Holy Smokes!
What is important to remember is that before the First Reported Death in the Province we knew the High Risk Groups were identified by both Age and Pre-Existing Conditions and this has not changed throughout the entire Pandemic.
These are identified by the Province →Link
And:
Broken Down, those with Pre-Existing Conditions have always made up more than 95% of Total COVID Deaths for the Province and at current, 90% of those deaths happen in the 60+ Age Group.
Total Mortality in those in the 60+ Age group:
2020: 1456
2021: 1553
Increase YoY: 97
Taking into consideration that the High Risk Groups in Alberta, throughout 2021 were first in line for Vaccinations as well as Booster Shots, we seen More Death from less Lethal Variants of COVID by about 7%.
Again, there were 3 more months of COVID in 2021 than 2020, but something to keep in mind here is that in January of 2021 there were 347 COVID deaths. In January of 2022 there were 416 - 69 additional deaths or an increase for January YoY: 19.8%.
To close, I want to put this into a little perspective. Some will say that the excess COVID deaths in Alberta are due to Provincial Health Measurements and delays in Vaccinations and Alberta Hillbillies and Climate Change and Conservative Government…blah blah blah, so I want to crudely show the calculations for COVID Deaths from the highest COVID Death Provinces in the country in relation to Alberta.
Number of Deaths/Number of Cases x Provincial Case Count:
This is absolutely not to defend the job that was done by the Alberta Emergency Management Agency (AEMA), but is to show that even as abysmal of a job as has been done, if the same approach was adopted throughout the country, we would have seen a reduction in COVID deaths by about 12,000 people in 5 Provinces which represents 32% of the COVID Mortality in Canada over the last 2 years.
Think about that.
Take the masks off, turn your minds back on, and STOP vaccinating! There is no panic, wait and see what the vaccines REALLY do?