Ran across a tweet today from a fellow Albertan requesting some information on which was COVID Variant was the most deadly.
I figured I’d give this a whirl!
Let’s begin, shall we?
As luck would have it, Alberta had broken down risk better than any province in Canada, so we can actually start to dissect the data and see how much interventions and vaccines have increased the rate of risk from/during COVID.
The first thing that is important to note is that there was, during the last 2 years of COVID an increase in mortality and not just a slight increase, it was pretty dramatic and the largest we've seen in 2 decades of reporting period. Looks like this:
To get an idea of what Excess Mortality looks like - though may not be 100% accurate, I added in average mortality increase from the last 3 decades and then worked to deduct the COVID deaths from this difference. What we most likely would have seen without COVID is this:
Using a somewhat Crude Methodology for Calculating, Excess Mortality, over and above a Provincial Average Increase in mortality would be:
2020: 875
2021: 932
Total: 1807
2020 and 2021 in Alberta, which would be an equivalent of more than 1 more year of COVID deaths on the Province. 3 years of COVID death in 2 years, one of which was CAUSED by measure meant to Reduce Mortality from COVID, where the second year of COVID showed an increase of 30%.
I've actually drilled this all out and summarized it in a substack...so... 1. This isn't new. 2. Doesn't actually show the risk increase from COVID during this time...I'll get to this but if you wanted to view this substack:
To get a better sense of the increased risk from COVID, I am going to use a snapshot of the pre-vaccine data by way of a couple of things. 1. People with No-Conditions. 2. Average age of COVID Mortality. Base line will be started according to PHAC, using Dec14, 2020...will extend this to the End of December because the provincial roll out was rather slow. End of Dec - 2020, Average Rate of COVID Death was 82 years old:
During that time, we can see that there were 1046 deaths attributed to COVID. Because of the seasonal break from reporting, these were only updated to December 20, 2020 at this time, there were only 20 deaths reported in people with No Comorbidities 2.7%:
Unlike unreliable PCR or Rapid Testing for COVID, these are diagnosed conditions and well known to increase the risk of death from All Causes.
And with each additional pre-existing health condition came more likelihood that you were at higher risk from Morbidity and Mortality from COVID, first graph showing the 2.7% in deaths from No Conditions:
Alberta has since scrubbed this information, along with a lot of other damning information on Vaccine Status because it no longer proved that there was a "Pandemic of the Vaccinated". But when we last had this available, there were 4,019 deaths and by this time, the average age of Mortality had dropped to 78 years or stated differently, there was a 4 year shift declining survivability in age from COVID during this time:
And the number of deaths in this age group grew from 20, Dec20, 2020 to 161 or a 700% increase in mortality in otherwise healthy people: YIKES!
Now, this can be due to a number of different factors but when you consider the list above - conditions for high risk groups, one thing important to note is that these come by way of metabolic conditions known as Consumption Related Diseases where the NPI's themselves reduced movement of the population through work-from-home, closing public sports, gyms while leaving fast-food restaurants, bars and liquor stores open. Add to this, teledocs and patients not seeing their doctors in person while they were less active and consuming trash foods and those that were borderline had increased their risks by way of being in a lot worse health but not diagnosed. An American study reported on by The New York Times in March of 2021 noted that an average of 2 lbs per month were gained during the lockdowns.
We’re a year past this date, what could this even look like now?
Did the variants get more lethal or did our overall health get a lot worse?
"the Omicron variant had a 91% lower lethality compared to the previous most common Delta strain."
Meaning that our overall health started to get a lot worse after 2 years of pandemic and introduction of the vaccines. The last day that this Pre-exisiting conditions info was available on the provincial site there were at least 66 COVID deaths in people who had no pre-diagnosed conditions (1 dose numbers not included in this chart) - over the 120 days prior to this date, Mar 16, 2022.
When again, from the first death in March of 2020 up to December 20, 2020 - over the course of a thousand COVID deaths only 20 were reported. At current reporting - May 2, 2022...there 995 COVID deaths - close to the first 1000 in 2020 and There are 54 deaths in people with No pre-diagnosed conditions over the last 120 days. How Long has Omicron been the predominant variant you ask?
By about December 15, 2021, Omicron overtook Delta - according to provincial reporting - 142 days ago.
So...which strain was the Most Deadly??? For being the Least Deadly Variant, according to Berkeley Research - it has been the most lethal to people with no previously diagnosed health conditions. Our risks didn't increase with variants; they increased because of failed knee-jerk reactions by the provincial government, increased risk followed NPIs that restricted movement, increased metabolic issues through consumption, decrease in personal doctor visits and harms caused by the vaccinations.
In this line I think you mean "Pandemic of the Unvaccinated"?
"Alberta has since scrubbed this information, along with a lot of other damning information on Vaccine Status because it no longer proved that there was a "Pandemic of the Vaccinated"."
Thanks for documenting all this before it disappears.